Coal
is a fossil fuel formed from plant remains, thus sequestering
atmospheric carbon.Coal is amazingly energy dense, only
second to crude oil. Coal is the number one source of
electricity generation, globally.
Demand vs. Supply
Coal reserves in the US remain amongst the largest
in the world. These reserves are claimed to hold hundreds
of years of supply. However, many analyst that discuss
these reserves tend to leave out important supply statistics
that drastically change the claimed inventory basis.
Even the EIA uses misleading nomenclature when discussing
America's coal reserves. Here is a quote from the EIA
web site:
"This is enough coal to last approximately
236 years at today's level of use."
A very important part of this sentence that must be
understood is "TODAY'S LEVEL OF USE". The
sentence read as follows:
At 0% demand growth, America's coal reserves
will last 236 years.
Of course America has never experienced a year where
demand for coal remained flat. This leads to understanding
the Exponential function. According to Dr.
Albert Bartlett, "The greatest shortcoming
of the human race is our inability to understand the
exponential function." In terms of coal demand,
if we take a fairly conservative growth rate of 2% per
annum, we can calculate the time it takes to double
our current usage. There is a simple logarithm (Rule
of 70)that when derived you take the number 70 and
divide it by the growth rate, this leads to the doubling
time. So at 2% growth in coal usage per year, we will
have doubled our usage in 35 years
CTL to CTG
Coal-to-Liquid or Coal-to-Gas are fuels
that are refined from coal. The US Government has been
exploring these CTL/CTG options for decades. New technologies
for converting coal to liquid or gas are being developed.
"Across the world, energy has
now become the linchpin of economic competitiveness,
forcing the U.S. and its industrial competitors to strategically
reassess their energy supplies and sources."
visit: www.futurecoalfuels.org/
The new technologies for converting coal
to liquid fuels or gas are substantially better for
the environment then the past. However, when calculating
the unbelievable demand growth that will come with using
coal for transportation, it is obvious that CTL or CTG
cannot solve all of our problems. Though continual investment
in this technology will certainly prove beneficial for
improving our national energy security.
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