June-July 2008-Issue 5

 

The Numbers on Alternatives and our Standard of Living
by:    Matthew Coyle
date:  July 17, 2008
Throughout the last few decades our proliferation of energy has transformed the global landscape. The industrial revolutions of the past two centuries have created unprecedented human dominance over the planet. This new standard of living for our society requires an enormous amount of energy. Lately, high energy prices have sounded the alarm on how sustainable our culture truly is; many in America are very upset with paying increased fuel costs. The average price of gasoline is $4.10 a gallon, and is projected to reach $5.00 by summer’s end. Natural gas has reached $13.00 per cu-ft, up nearly 30% from last year [1]. Projections for the future cost of natural gas are also alarming. All of these issues are happening on the cusp of massive growth in Asian countries. These emerging industrial powerhouses are set to grow their energy use by double digits for the foreseeable future. For example: SUV sales in China are expected to grow by more then 40% in 2008. China’s oil consumption is up over 10% from last year and their energy demand is set to grow by 150% by 2020 [2]. According to T. Boone Pickens, one of America’s top energy investors, the world’s demand for oil is currently outpacing available supply. In order to keep up with Asian demand and replace declines in current oil fields, we must add a massive amount of oil in the next 10 years [3]—this is equivalent to two more Saudi Arabia’s. It is obvious that the solution to future energy scarcity will not involve more petroleum use.

The alarm bells are ringing; people are speaking out about these issues. People are asking questions. People are wondering about the future of this great nation. However, even with all this talk, many people are still uninformed about what exactly needs to be accomplished in order to unhinge our dependence on oil. Alternative energy is becoming one of the most googled phrases on the internet. The phrase “Alternative Energy” has been all over the media: in newspapers, radio and television. It should be noted that this period of time most likely will be known as the beginning of the green revolution. However, what exactly needs to be done to sustain our wonderful standard of living? Let’s discuss some of the proposed alternatives:

Un-Conventional Oil (Tar Sands – Oil Shale):
These are the dirtiest of possible replacements for ‘conventional oil’. Both of these energy sources require that oil be mined rather then extracted. The process for mining these oil reserves requires substantial amounts of energy and water. The scale needed for un-conventional oil to replace foreign oil imports is staggering: with growth of more than 500% needed to offset the import usage. Whereas, the current realistic hopes for un-conventional oil are about 5mbpd by 2020. However, when calculating the damage caused to the environmental system it is quite obvious that unconventional resources are a futile attempt to replace conventional oil imports--let alone ridding our addiction to oil all together. However, these resources will play a very important role in bridging the gap in supply, leaving time to transition to new, alternative fuels.

Electricity:
Americans use nearly 1 million megawatts of electricity, with demand predicted to grow by 150,000 MW in the next 10 years[4]. Electricity is not technically a source of energy. It is, in a sense, a means for energy storage and distribution. The feedstock for most of the world’s electricity is coal. Natural gas is also becoming a very popular method of electricity production as well. There are many ways that America can utilize electricity for commuting in electric vehicles (see “Who Killed the Electric Car”). Furthermore, the phase in of energy efficient products and grid design could cut our demand in half in less than 10 years. For example, Australia has currently passed a mandate banning the sale of incandescent bulbs after 2010 and requiring all bulbs to be sold as CFL’s (Compact Fluorescent Bulbs).


For the United States, this bulb switch would facilitate shutting down 80 coal- fired plants.[5]


There are many simple examples like this that could create the spare electrical capacity that would be needed to switch our entire fleet of vehicles to electric/electric assisted. There is a huge sigh of relief: luckily for us, electricity can be manufactured from the sun, hydro, geo-thermal and the wind. Some of these sectors have been growing at 50-100% every year for the past few years. These technologies have been proven and the green energy industry will create millions of new American jobs. Get ready for the electric age, if you haven’t heard, check out the new Chevy Volt, coming out in late 2009.

Nuclear Power:
The last nuke plant the US built was in the 1970’s. There are currently 104 operable nuclear power plants. Nuclear is now being considered a short-term solution to petroleum dependency. There is also a new hope for recycling used radioactive waste; researchers are very close to developing an efficient way to do this.

Ocean & Geothermal
Both of these sources of energy have been harnessed for thousands of years. Today, ocean electrical generating systems are producing thousands of MW’s off of coastal regions around the world, using the endless power of waves to generate electricity, with massive growth rates projected for the coming years. There are a large array of wave turbines poping up all over. Follow this link to see for yourself. Click Here

The Rest: Hydrogen, Compressed Air, Light Weight Composites.
All of these technologies will play a significant role; however, it is important to remember the processes involved in the production of these technologies.

Hydrogen is very energy intensive to produce and store. It is not an energy source, only a way to store energy. Hydrogen always begins with an energy input like electricity to break the Hydrogen & Oxygen atoms. However, when producing hydrogen with a wind turbine, the positive return on the environment far outweighs the difficulties of storing hydrogen.

Compressed Air technology is also only a form of energy storage, and many companies are ready to begin producing these vehicles. For example, a company called MDI (Moteur Developpment International) has been developing compressed air vehicles for more then a decade now. The first factory manufactured compressed air vehicle will be available in 2009. India will be one of the first countries to start manufacturing these incredibly simple vehicles. These vehicles require about 20% less energy to manufacture, and can help centralize the source of pollution outputs (i.e. the electric power plant). The cars runs on 4500psi of compressed air, stored in carbon fiber tanks under the car. The cars are said to get between the range per charge of 30 to 1,000 miles, and retail for under $18,000 [6, Sullivan]. Models offered with a dual energy sources are proposed to go 1,000 miles at 96mph on just 8 gallons of gasoline. That is an impressive 125mpg!

Lightweight composite materials are also worth discussing. The air car actually is a perfect example of what lightweight composites materials are capable of doing. Vehicle weight is extremely important when developing efficient vehicles. A very in depth analysis on this concept of conservation through weight reduction can be seen on TED, a website dedicated to spreading worthwhile ideas. The lecture to watch is: Amory Lovins: We must win the oil endgame. If you do not understand just how much gasoline is wasted in the current fleet of vehicles, I urge you to watch this lecture.

So those are the numbers, those are the respones to our dependency.

Alarm bells are rings. People are asking questions.

It should then be known that the future of energy will be very remarkable, environmentally respectable, and equally affluent; however, this scenario will only play out if today, we begin to take energy seriously.

Educate it, Practice it, Live it.

Optimistically Yours,
Matthew Coyle

*Thanks for the editing E.A.B


1. http://www.energywindow.com/price/NG.shtml
2. http://www.iags.org/china.htm
3. http://www.alternativeenergy.com/profiles/blog/show?id=1066929%3ABlogPost%3A4601
4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_vehicle
5. http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2007/Update66.htm
6. Sullivan,Matt:http://www.popularmechanics.com/automotive/new_cars/4251491.html

In this issue:

latest news
The Oil Endgame
100 MPG
Noteworthy Sites

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